All Aboard Florida Ridership & Fare Projections

tcpalm.com: WASHINGTON, D.C. — All Aboard Florida ridership information and ticket prices were publicly released for the first time Thursday as part of a lawsuit trying to block nearly $2 billion in funding for the controversial project.

The Ridership and Revenue Study was filed in U.S. District Court in Washington, where Indian River and Martin counties will face off Friday morning with All Aboard Florida and its co-defendant, the U.S. Department of Transportation. At issue will be All Aboard Florida’s financing, and whether the Florida Finance Development Corp. can move forward with issuance of tax-exempt private activity bonds for the project.

The 153-page Ridership and Revenue Study, commissioned by All Aboard Florida’s parent company Florida East Coast Industries and prepared by The Louis Berger Group, indicates ticket prices would range from $11 for a one-way coach seat between Miami and Fort Lauderdale to $143 for a one-way business-class seat between Miami and Orlando

Ridership would top 7 million by 2030, according to the study.

It would hit 1 million in 2017, the first year of service along the entire Miami-to-Orlando route, according to the study. Ridership would grow an average 2.8 percent per year, increasing to 3 million in 2018 and 5.35 million in 2020, according to the report.

The projections were developed with data collected in and around potential stations, the report states. Data from the Treasure Coast, which is not slated for a station, was excluded.

But data from Brevard County — where local officials have requested a station but none has been publicly announced — was included. A station would be built in built in Brevard County, according to the study.

All Aboard Florida officials have long said consideration for stations on the Treasure and Space coasts would happen only after the railroad company started running 16 trains per day in each direction.

Other counties included in the ridership study are Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Lake, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade.

The study estimates fare revenue at just under $300 million in 2020, with annual ticket revenue growing to approximately $400 million in 2030. Those projections don’t include revenue from transit-oriented development, the extensive real estate projects planned at and around All Aboard Florida’s Miami, Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach stations.

The Louis Berger Group gathered its ridership numbers from estimates that travelers make more than 110 million trips a year among Orlando, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. All Aboard Florida plans to serve approximately 10 percent of the overall market for travel between Southeast Florida and Central Florida, and 1.2 percent of individuals traveling among West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami, according to the study.

All Aboard Florida President Michael Reininger said the study is “consistent with our commitment to use the most comprehensive information in order to confirm that there is market demand for our product that will alleviate congested roadways and build out an intermodal connectivity that Florida does not have today.”

For its part, Martin County discounted findings of the study.

“AAF’s ridership study contains projections only,” said Washington attorney Stephen Ryan, who is representing Martin County in the lawsuit against All Aboard Florida and the Department of Transportation. “The study indicates they are counting on up to 93 percent of their ridership coming from people who currently drive cars . . . but there is no foundation for AAF’s ridership conclusion, other than they say it is so.”

A report commissioned by Citizens Against Rail Expansion — also Ryan’s client — concluded that All Aboard Florida would fail to generate enough revenue to cover its debts and would push much of its financial burden onto taxpayers.

The company would need to charge $273 per one-way fare, even under “unrealistically optimistic assumptions,” to keep up with its debt, and as service continues, it would generate annual losses of more than $100 million, according to the report compiled by Brown University professor John Friedman.

All Aboard Florida has said receiving the tax-exempt-bond financing is the “linchpin” of its project.

Recently, however, it said in court filings that the $3 billion project would go through regardless of whether it borrowed money through private activity bonds. If the lawsuits were successful in blocking that less-expensive financing, the company would sell traditional bonds, increasing its cost by $277 million to $394 million, according to court documents.

Reporter Lisa Broadt, reporting from Washington, contributed to this report.

One-way All Aboard Florida ticket prices

Miami/Fort Lauderdale — Business: $15; Coach: $11
Fort Lauderdale/West Palm Beach — Business: $18; Coach: $14
Miami/West Palm Beach — Business: $21; Coach:$16
Miami/Orlando — Business: $143.46; Coach: $93.80
Fort Lauderdale/Orlando — Business: $126.91; Coach: $82.76
West Palm Beach/Orlando — Business: $99.32; Coach: $66.21
Source: All Aboard Florida Ridership and Revenue Study

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